Beige Book notes

Today’s Beige Book report provides updated economic information collected before April 4th, 2011. Below are my highlights from the report: economic activity improved since last report Manufacturing strong Loan demand flat to up slightly Residential & commercial real estate weak No wage pressure Higher commodity costs Auto sales improving Tourism improving Labor markets improving. March [...]

Jeremy Grantham

This 30 minute interview with Jeremy Grantham is one of the smartest I have seen recently. Watch it!

Double Dip?

Many investors are convinced a double-dip recession is inevitable. Not me. One of the most reliable forecasters of recessions is the yield curve. A simple way to measure the steepness of the yield curve is to calculate the difference between the 10-year Treasury note and 3-month Treasury bill. Since 1955, there have been 9 recessions [...]

Stimulus Bill

The New York Times has a list of the major provisions in the most recent stimulus bill expected to be passed by the House and Senate on Friday. Here are a few key items: Income Tax credit of $400 for individuals / $800 married couples. Phases out on income over $75,000 for individuals / $150,000 [...]

GDP – 2nd Quarter 2008

Here is the full 2008 2nd Quarter GDP report. The 2nd quarter advance GDP figure is 1.9% – up from 0.9% in the 1st Quarter. 

R&D and GDP

Interesting analysis of R&D and its potential effect on GDP if it were included. Final 2nd Quarter 2007 GDP is 3.8% [link] August year-over-year core PCE is 1.8% [link]

2nd quarter GDP

Econbrowser has a good breakdown of the second quarter GDP release from the BEA.

Housing starts and completions

We knew that housing starts had plunged. We now see completions are plunging. Next up…construction jobs are expected to plunge. The nonfarm payroll numbers will begin facing a very strong headwind in the months ahead as these workers fall off payrolls. By late summer, if not sooner, fed rate cutting should commence. Click here to [...]

Large GDP revision released

As we mentioned 2 weeks ago the advance GDP release made several assumptions that proved to be incorrect. Therefore, the preliminary release (GDP release order is: Advance, Preliminary, Final) has revised the advance number down from 3.5% to 2.2% – a HUGE revision. This is more in line with what we expected. We now have 3 [...]

4th Quarter GDP will be revised lower

The 4th Quarter 2006 GDP figure was an upside surprise to just about everyone that tracks the GDP data. It is now evident the number may have been overstated by as much as 1%. I would expect to see the revision somewhere in the 2.5% to 3% range once the final numbers come in. Below are a [...]