Beige Book notes

Today’s Beige Book report provides updated economic information collected before April 4th, 2011. Below are my highlights from the report: economic activity improved since last report Manufacturing strong Loan demand flat to up slightly Residential & commercial real estate weak No wage pressure Higher commodity costs Auto sales improving Tourism improving Labor markets improving. March [...]

March Employment report = +162000

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2010 Employment Situation report. According to the initial figures, the economy added 162,000 new nonfarm workers during the month. In addition, the January and February monthly figures were revised upward by a total of 62,000. The Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7%, were it has [...]

Jobs Jobs Jobs

Today’s payroll figures for October show the unemployment rate rose to 10.2%, from 9.8% in September. The unemployment rate is up from 6.8% one year ago. The 10.2% reading is the highest since a 10.3% in March 1983. In the early 1980s, the unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in November & December 1982.   The [...]

Jobs and Employment

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the January 2009 Employment Situation report. As expected, it was an ugly report. 598,000 jobs were lost in January and the unemployment rate rose from 7.2% to 7.6%. The following is our updated 5-year rolling unemployment rate chart: Since December 2007, the economy has shed 3.6 million [...]

Employment situation

Today’s August 2008 Employment Situation Report states the economy lost 84,000 jobs in August, 60,000 in July, and 100,000 in June. The 3-mo average is -81,333 and the 12-mo average is -23,583. The continuing stream of monthly job losses (eight consecutive months now) has caused the unemployment rate to rise to 6.1% in August. It [...]

Unemployment & Nonfarm Payroll charts

Below is an updated five year chart of the Unemployment rate:   Below is an updated five year chart of the three month & six month nonfarm payroll averages:

4/4 BLS Employment situation

According to today’s BLS Employment Situation report, the unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from to 5.1% in March, up from 4.8%. The nonfarm payroll jobs count declined by 80,000. Over the past three months, payroll employment has declined by 232,000. Here is an excerpt from the report: THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MARCH 2008 The unemployment [...]

July Employment figures

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the July Employment Situation report this morning. The report states that the economy add 92,000 nonfarm jobs in July – below consensus estimates of 135,000. The Unemployment rate moved up from 4.5% in June to 4.6% in July (rounded down from 4.6x – just a handful of basis [...]

Payroll figures

We get the July payroll figures tomorrow morning at 8:30am … remember to play The Payroll Employment Game tonight!

Where are the residential construction job losses ?

Once again, Calculated Risk does a great job tracking this issue. The answer appears to lie in quarterly revisions to the data.

Today’s housing figures

Today the Census Bureau released the monthly New Residential Construction report for March. As usual, Calculated Risk has done a fine job summarizing the figures. Now that the housing completions figures have followed the housing starts figures ‘off a cliff’, we expect significant residential construction job losses to begin to appear in the monthly Nonfarm [...]

Housing starts and completions

We knew that housing starts had plunged. We now see completions are plunging. Next up…construction jobs are expected to plunge. The nonfarm payroll numbers will begin facing a very strong headwind in the months ahead as these workers fall off payrolls. By late summer, if not sooner, fed rate cutting should commence. Click here to [...]

Lastest housing data is weak

The lastest housing data from the Census Bureau does not paint a favorable picture. In fact, both starts and completions continue to drop significantly. Calculated Risk once again does an excellent job reviewing the data and pointing out the highly correlated effect between housing completions and residential construction. As we make our way through 2007, we [...]