FOMC speech

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President and CEO Dennis P. Lockhart is a non-voting member of the FOMC in 2010. Yesterday he gave a speech to the Downtown Atlanta Rotary that I felt contained some valuable insight into the current thinking of some FOMC members. Below are some quotes from his speech with my thoughts [...]

FOMC Minutes

Here are the December 15/16 FOMC minutes My takeways: economic activity improving capacity utilization still very low job losses slowing real PCE picking up housing steady foreign economies emerging from recession CRE conditions still deteriorating

November 2009 edition of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor is available online

The November 2009 edition of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor is online at This month we review key economic indicator readings during previous recessions in order to get clues on when the FOMC may begin tightening monetary policy. We also provide updates on the latest I Bonds rates and high yielding CDs available nationwide. [...]

Frontline: the warning

PBS Frontline Website

Beige Book notes

Below are highlights from today’s Beige Book : stabilization or improvements in many sectors commercial real estate (CRE) weak no price or wage pressures – some deflationary pressure noted consumer spending weak but improving tourism remains weak and heavily discounted manufacturing activity picking up housing market conditions improving weak/declining loan demand – credit quality still [...]

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation update

This morning (6/1/09) the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the April Personal Income report. Below is a 5 year chart of the headline and core PCE inflation rate. In April, the headline rate fell to +0.44% year-over-year and the core rate rose to +1.89% year-over-year. One thing is very obvious from this chart – [...]

NY Fed Treasury purchase details

Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities March 18, 2009 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has announced that the Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk) will begin a Treasury purchase program of up to $300 billion to help improve conditions in private credit markets. The Desk will concentrate purchases in the 2- to 10-year sector [...]

Today’s FOMC post-meeting statement

Press Release Release Date: March 18, 2009 For immediate release Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract.  Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending.  Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have [...]

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)

Today from the Fed …. (see release) In carrying out the Financial Stability Plan, the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board are announcing the launch of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a component of the Consumer and Business Lending Initiative (CBLI).  The TALF has the potential to generate up to [...]

Federal Reserve programs to strengthen credit markets and the economy

On Tuesday February 10th Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke offered the following testimony to the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet next on March 17th, 2009. Recently, the federal funds rate has settled into the 0.22 – 0.24 basis points range – just below the [...]

Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)

Friday afternoon the Federal Reserve released additional terms & conditions of the TALF. ( full terms here ) Effective February 6, 2009 CURRENT TERMS AND CONDITIONS FacilityThe TALF will be a Federal Reserve credit facility authorized under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The TALF is intended to make credit available to consumers and [...]

U.S. Treasury refunding – 50 year bond possible

The Treasury Department announced another record quarterly refunding today. This surge in supply has forced some notable changes to the auction schedule. The Treasury will revive the 7-year note on a monthly basis. In addition, the Treasury will auction more 30-year bonds on a quarterly basis. Other ideas being considered for the future are introducing [...]

Federal Reserve extends liquidity programs

From the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve on Tuesday announced the extension through October 30, 2009, of its existing liquidity programs that were scheduled to expire on April 30, 2009. The Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took these actions in light of continuing substantial strains in many financial markets. The [...]

Real Fed Funds

The following chart adjusts the fed funds rate relative to the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index. As you can see, real interest rates are lower today than they have been at anytime during the previous 15+ years.

5% CDs

Attention Fixed Income Investors! Today, Pentagon Federal Credit Union reintroduced their 5% APY CDs available in 3-year, 4-year, 5-year and 7-year terms. In addition, Washington Mutual (recently purchase by JP Morgan Chase), continues to offer 5% CDs for both 12-month and 13-month terms. PedFed CDs are backed by the NCUA and the WaMu CDs are [...]