We knew that housing starts had plunged. We now see completions are plunging. Next up…construction jobs are expected to plunge. The nonfarm payroll numbers will begin facing a very strong headwind in the months ahead as these workers fall off payrolls. By late summer, if not sooner, fed rate cutting should commence. Click here to [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: Employment, Federal Reserve, General, Gross Domestic Product, Inflation
Posted on March 20th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

Next week on March 20th and 21st the FOMC will hold their 2-day meeting. The following chart illustrates the probability of different rates based on futures trading as of March 14th. As you can see, leaving rates at the current 5.25% level is a near certainty. You can view updated data here at the Federal Reserve Bank [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: Federal Reserve
Posted on March 14th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

World Savings is offering a 5.6% 10-month Internet CD for new money.  You can view their ad here. There is a 10K min & 100K max.  The CD is FDIC insured. Great Rate — Guaranteed Earnings Earn one of the highest CD yields available — significantly more than the competition — just by opening your [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: CDs
Posted on March 13th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

The Bonddad blog has written a piece on how the subprime mortgage market can crash so quickly. The Mortgage Implode-O-Meter

Comments Off | Filed under: General
Posted on March 13th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

Bloomberg has an update on the Kentucky muni bond case. You can read it here. As each decision date passes, it looks like the court is going to take a pass. The court might instead decide a case it heard back in January that raises similar issues — United Haulers v. Oneida-Herkimer Counties — and [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: General, Municipal Bonds
Posted on March 7th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

The Federal Reserve published the beige book today. You can view it online here.  It essentially says we are experiencing a sluggish economy with a tight labor market. Most Federal Reserve Districts reported modest expansion in economic activity since the last report, but several Districts noted some slowing. For example, New York characterized growth as [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: Federal Reserve, General
Posted on March 7th, 2007 by Bob Brinker

TickerSense provides analysis of previous back-to-back 90% volume reversals. Thing is, it hasn’t happened in 40 years. A 90% upside volume day occurs when 90% of the NYSE volume occurs in stocks which finished positive on the day, while a 90% downside day means 90% or more of the NYSE volume occurred in stocks that were down.  According [...]

Comments Off | Filed under: General
Posted on March 7th, 2007 by Bob Brinker