Housing starts and completions

We knew that housing starts had plunged. We now see completions are plunging. Next up…construction jobs are expected to plunge. The nonfarm payroll numbers will begin facing a very strong headwind in the months ahead as these workers fall off payrolls. By late summer, if not sooner, fed rate cutting should commence. Click here to [...]

March FOMC meeting

Next week on March 20th and 21st the FOMC will hold their 2-day meeting. The following chart illustrates the probability of different rates based on futures trading as of March 14th. As you can see, leaving rates at the current 5.25% level is a near certainty. You can view updated data here at the Federal Reserve Bank [...]

5.6% 10-month CD at World Savings

World Savings is offering a 5.6% 10-month Internet CD for new money.  You can view their ad here. There is a 10K min & 100K max.  The CD is FDIC insured. Great Rate — Guaranteed Earnings Earn one of the highest CD yields available — significantly more than the competition — just by opening your [...]

How subprime defaults result in bankruptcy

The Bonddad blog has written a piece on how the subprime mortgage market can crash so quickly. The Mortgage Implode-O-Meter

Kentucky muni bond legal case

Bloomberg has an update on the Kentucky muni bond case. You can read it here. As each decision date passes, it looks like the court is going to take a pass. The court might instead decide a case it heard back in January that raises similar issues — United Haulers v. Oneida-Herkimer Counties — and [...]

Beige book released

The Federal Reserve published the beige book today. You can view it online here.  It essentially says we are experiencing a sluggish economy with a tight labor market. Most Federal Reserve Districts reported modest expansion in economic activity since the last report, but several Districts noted some slowing. For example, New York characterized growth as [...]

90%+ down on Monday, 90%+ up on Tuesday

TickerSense provides analysis of previous back-to-back 90% volume reversals. Thing is, it hasn’t happened in 40 years. A 90% upside volume day occurs when 90% of the NYSE volume occurs in stocks which finished positive on the day, while a 90% downside day means 90% or more of the NYSE volume occurred in stocks that were down.  According [...]