According to the Cleveland Fed, the most likely outcome for the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday & Wednesday of this week is a 25 basis point cut resulting in a 2% fed funds rate. The second most likely outcome is no rate cut holding the fed funds rate steady at 2.25%.

| Filed under: Federal Reserve, General
Posted on April 28th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Ambac Posts Loss on CDO Writedown, New Business Drop
Bondholders Lucky to Get 10 Cents in Looming Defaults
Nice list of various Web 2.0 websites – 2008 Webware award winners
Mac Sales Boost Apple’s Profit
A Strong Dollar Policy?

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 23rd, 2008 by Bob Brinker

This Sunday’s New York Times magazine will include an excellent article on how the credit ratings agencies went about assigning triple-A ratings to pools of subprime mortgages. In my opinion, it is required reading for all fixed-income investors.
Triple-A Failure
By ROGER LOWENSTEIN
From the investment bank’s point of view, the key to the deal was obtaining a [...]

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 23rd, 2008 by Bob Brinker

50-Week Moving Average of AAII % Bears Hits New Record High
Auction rate securities still hurting
LIBOR is rising. Is it being manipulated?
Unemployment claims rose to 372k last week

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 18th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Beige book indicates weakness
Beige book report – released April 16th – PDF download
Philly Fed index
Gas price manipulation probe

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 17th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Worldwide PC shipments up 12%
Top 10 hedge fund earners in 2007
IBM issues upbeat forecast
Tech Firms Cradle Cash

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 16th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

The comeback of private equity
Nearing the end of Fed rate cuts
The TSLF today received $33 billion in bids on up to $50 billion in lending with a stop-out rate of 0.25. A clear sign liquidity problems are improving.

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 10th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Bloomberg provides this update on the Kentucky v. Davis Supreme Court decision. It is taking awhile to get a ruling.
The court heard arguments Nov. 5 on the special tax breaks that 42 states provide to municipal bonds issued within their borders. At the time, many analysts and lawyers predicted a quick decision that would [...]

| Filed under: General, Municipal Bonds
Posted on April 10th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Lehman Brothers bailed out 5 short-term debt funds
Senate passes housing aid package 84-12
Volcker Decries Fed Response to ‘Mother of All Crises’
March retail sales flat
Countrywide is still offering a 1-year CD with a 4.20% APY. A $10k min purchase is required. We recommend keeping all CD purchases within FDIC insurance limits.

| Filed under: CDs, General
Posted on April 10th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Press your luck
Alan Greenspan responds to his critics
Goldman Sachs keeps its leverage
Barron’s offers some high-yield ideas

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 7th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Below is an updated five year chart of the Unemployment rate:

 
Below is an updated five year chart of the three month & six month nonfarm payroll averages:

| Filed under: Employment, General, Investment Letter
Posted on April 4th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

According to today’s BLS Employment Situation report, the unemployment rate in the U.S. rose from to 5.1% in March, up from 4.8%. The nonfarm payroll jobs count declined by 80,000. Over the past three months, payroll employment has declined by 232,000.
Here is an excerpt from the report:
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MARCH 2008
The [...]

| Filed under: Employment, General
Posted on April 4th, 2008 by Bob Brinker

With all the new Fed lending programs now in effect, most created in the past few months, the NY Fed has published this PDF detailing the high-level differences between each of the programs.

| Filed under: Federal Reserve, General
Posted on April 3rd, 2008 by Bob Brinker

One of the most read stories on Bloomberg today is: Bill Miller Has `Hideous’ Quarter With Old, New Picks . Now, I have nothing against Bill Miller – his impressive long-term track record speaks for itself. However, one does have to wonder if Mr. Miller has any regrets about his decision to purchase his first [...]

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 3rd, 2008 by Bob Brinker

Below is a graph of the 10-day (RED) and 60-day (GREEN) put/call data relative to the S&P 500 over the past three years through today’s close on 4/3/08. The 60-day appears to be topping out at an all-time record high level of 1.10. If recent history is any guide, as the 60-day rolls back down, [...]

| Filed under: General
Posted on April 3rd, 2008 by Bob Brinker