The TED Spread measures the difference between the 3 month LIBOR and 3 month T-bill.  The TED Spread is considered ‘normal’ when it is below 50 basis points. Here is a multi-year chart of the TED Spread going back to 2006 (source: Bloomberg)

The TED spread increased from the mid-teens to 50 basis points in [...]

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Posted on July 19th, 2010 by Bob Brinker

Many investors are convinced a double-dip recession is inevitable. Not me. One of the most reliable forecasters of recessions is the yield curve. A simple way to measure the steepness of the yield curve is to calculate the difference between the 10-year Treasury note and 3-month Treasury bill. Since 1955, there have been 9 recessions [...]

| Filed under: Federal Reserve, General, Gross Domestic Product, U.S. Treasury
Posted on July 19th, 2010 by Bob Brinker

On 7/15 we reloaded our database with 781 upcoming municipal bond auctions totaling $21.3 billion in new issues. These include a $900MM offering by the State of Illinois and a $635MM offering by the State of Minnesota. There are upcoming auctions in 49 different states.
Click HERE to Search for municipal bond auctions in your state.

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Posted on July 15th, 2010 by Bob Brinker

Over the weekend I read Gregory Zuckerman’s The Greatest Trade Ever. The book details the story of John Paulson’s gutsy, ingenious (at the time) trade against the housing debt bubble. Paulson and co-manager Paolo Pellegrini not only identified the correlations between home price appreciation and mortgage defaults, but more importantly identified a way to manufacture [...]

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Posted on July 12th, 2010 by Bob Brinker

The July 2010 edition of the Brinker Fixed Income Advisor is available for subscriber download at www.BrinkerAdvisor.com
1-Year Model Portfolio Performance
Aggressive Portfolio + 16.5%
Moderate Portfolio + 11.8%
Conservative Portfolio + 9.9%
Tax-Exempt Portfolio + 8.7%
**1-year portfolio returns through 6/30/2010

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Posted on July 1st, 2010 by Bob Brinker