Lastest housing data is weak
The lastest housing data from the Census Bureau does not paint a favorable picture. In fact, both starts and completions continue to drop significantly. Calculated Risk once again does an excellent job reviewing the data and pointing out the highly correlated effect between housing completions and residential construction. As we make our way through 2007, we expect large job losses in this category.
Completions and residential construction employment are highly correlated, and Completions lag Starts by about 6 months.
Based on historical correlations, it is reasonable to expect Completions and residential construction employment to follow Starts “off the cliff”. This would indicate the loss of 400K to 600K residential construction employment jobs by this Summer.