U.S. Treasury yield curve

Look at how little rates have changed on the U.S. Treasury yield curve over the past year:ustcurve

The 30-yr bond yield closed at 4.35 today and the 3-mo bill closed at 0.16 leaving us with a curve that is 419 basis points steep. The 10-year (3.47) minus the 2-year (0.81) is 266 basis points steep.  It is the curve‚Äôs steepness, more than anything else, that has imposed a cap on longer-term yields. Until rate hikes commence at some point in the future, longer-term rates will have difficulty going materially higher.

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